2024 is unlikely to go down in history as the pinnacle of Swedish climate policy. Throughout the year, the government has tried to quietly release or obscure several pieces of bad news. But a positive exception came just before Christmas. Can one dare to wish for a climate policy in 2025 that Sweden can once again boast about? wonders 2050’s scientific advisor Mikael Karlsson.
When I occasionally think about the government’s climate policy action plan, I am reminded of the TV series “The West Wing.” In the episode “Take Out the Trash Day,” it is explained how bad news is often presented on the last day of the workweek, to be forgotten over the upcoming weekend. Instead, it was on the last working day of 2023 for many, when the action plan was submitted to the parliament.
The format was a government communication, which meant that the number of proposals for decisions in parliament was zero. It was not much of a Christmas present for the future and the planet.
The communication contains a scenario chosen by the government, where emissions decrease so that the parliament’s goal of net-zero emissions by 2045 is achieved. But the experts who reviewed the plan at the beginning of the year revealed that the scenario lacks coverage.
Thus, in the spring, the Swedish Climate Policy Council stated that “the government gives a misleading picture of the action plan’s effects to achieve the climate goal by 2045 and that the claim that the action plan leads all the way to net-zero emissions lacks objectivity.”
The climate debate during the year has been characterized by this lack of emission-reducing policy and this juggling with numbers and graphs. Many companies that want to see an ambitious and stable climate policy are particularly critical.
Or to quote the Swedish Fiscal Policy Council: “The government lacks a coherent and understandable climate strategy. Companies and households therefore find it difficult to make well-thought-out investment decisions and transition in a cost-effective way, something that risks particularly affecting households with small margins.”
In response, the government has said that the EU’s climate policy is the most important. Therefore, there was some attention this summer when the government, in its own report to the European Commission, stated that based on the data “that has been developed and which is based on decided instruments, Sweden’s EU target of a 50 percent reduction in emissions by 2030” within the ESR sector, i.e., for activities outside the EU’s emissions trading system, will not be met. The report also reveals that Sweden is missing requirements and targets for land use (LULUCF), renewable energy, and energy efficiency.
Against this background, someone might have thought that the budget proposal for 2025 would include proposals to meet the parliament’s climate goals and binding EU requirements. But in addition to a significant reduction in the environmental budget, taxes on fossil fuels will also be lowered in the coming year, while the aviation tax is abolished and the climate initiative receives less funding.
Statistics Sweden, responsible for official statistics and for other government statistics, now states that emissions are increasing. The government is trying to counter this by heavily investing in new nuclear power, but the latest investigation into the issue is now facing broad criticism, even from many who want to see new nuclear power. In October, the government also appointed an investigation into instruments. It will present its report in May 2026. This excludes proposals to the parliament this term, somewhat like the climate action plan. But perhaps it was otherwise a coincidence that the news was presented at the end of a workweek?
The positive exception came the other day. The government is extending the mandate of the collaboration Fossil-Free Sweden by two years. This means that climate plans and climate measures within the business sector will continue to be coordinated, and stimulated. This is good news for all companies that want to accelerate the transition to achieve climate goals and strengthen Sweden’s competitiveness.
The question is whether the decision signals the beginning of a reconsideration by the government. It is far from certain. But I sincerely wish for a climate policy reset in 2025, which will make Sweden once again and on good grounds able to boast to the world about its climate leadership.
